Baccarat Road – Baccarat is a game of superstition. Most players keep careful track of the shoe’s history, either on paper or with the help of a screen that shows every hand since the shoe’s inception. There are several ways to record this information. Companies that market screens showing the history of shoes present them in different ways depending on the most popular methods of trying to define patterns.
Before continuing, I offer my usual comment about notation. When referring to actual bets, I use capital letters. When referring to a player playing a game, I use lowercase letters. I invite the rest of the world to follow this convention to avoid confusion.
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For those who don’t know me, let me just take a moment to say that all this effort in trying to predict the next hand is a waste of time. For all practical purposes, the odds are the same for every hand regardless of past history. Now before the perfectionists out there write me off, yes, I know, if you used a computer, the card counter could make a computer-perfect decision after the rest of the cards were laid out, which very rarely benefits some. But that’s not what I’m talking about. I say that trying to find patterns in past games and banker wins is about as useless as guessing the next color in roulette (on the fair wheel) after the previous red and black.
The House Always Wins: Simulating 5,000,000 Games Of Baccarat A.k.a. Punto Banco
Although I don’t personally play baccarat, I’ve asked about some of the tables in those shoe history exhibits over the years. The staff at the Venetian was very helpful in understanding me so I could put the rest of the world at ease. So, preamble out of the way, let’s get started. Here is a picture of a typical icon, which appears in the Venetian. There are several components of the display that I will address individually.
This section above is called the “Pearl Plate”. It used to be that players would buy a tray of dice which side would win the player, banker and tie. Profit is recorded as follows:
The player starts at the top left corner and descends. When he reaches the bottom row, he moves one column to the right and back to the top row.
The next section at the top of the photo is called “The Great Road”. It specifically tracks the profits of players and bankers. Ties and pair wins are also noted with slashes and dots. To be specific, a tie with a green line is recorded by a win by the previous player or banker. A pair of players is noted with a blue dot in the lower right corner of the hand where it occurred. A pair of bankers with a red dot in the upper left. In the interest of simplicity, only the players and bankers were winning in this example.
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As with Money Plate, the player starts from the top left, with the player winning in blue and the banker winning in red. However, instead of a solid circle, with a Chinese character in the center, Big Road only has a blue and red outline of circles.
Unlike Bid Plate, in Big Road the player starts at the top of a new column with each change in player and banker winnings. Note that the grid is six rows deep. If seven or more consecutive player or banker wins, results will shift to the right, known as the dragon’s tail. In this instance, it never happens, because the same side never had more than four wins in a row.
With the following table, it’s not so clear what’s going on now, and this is where I start to need help. As already mentioned, baccarat players are a very superstitious bunch. While the strategies they use to find patterns is a complicated topic, one basic fact is that they like predictability and repeating patterns. For example, if the last 12 hands are BBBPPPPBBBBPPP, I bet that everyone at the table will bet the banker on the next hand. Notice how the three groups win. The Big Eye Boy Table is useful for measuring how many repetitions a shoe has. Red entries are a sign of repetition and blue entries are a sign of a messy, “choppy” shoe. It is important to note that in the Big Eye Boy table, blue and red are not associated with player and banker wins, as they are on the previous two tables.
The first entry in the Big Eye Boy table is a hand after the first entry in the second column of the Big Road, so there is enough information to determine if a pattern is developing. This is where the air starts to thin, so pay attention. Each entry in the Big Eye Boy table, as well as the next two tables, refers to a specific entry in the Big Road. Each entry in Big Eye Boy is recorded as follows:
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For the purposes of Big Eye Boy as well as Small Road and the Cockroach Pig, when Big Road makes a dragon’s tail, assume that Big Road is infinitely deep and ask yourself what would have happened under that assumption.
Note that if the Big Road consists of an alternating pattern of x player wins with x banker wins, then Big Eye Boy will be completely red.
To help with this part, I explain each entry in the Big Eye Boy table below. I’ve put the results into excel so you can see the exact grid points I’m talking about.
For example, the first entry represents cell A1 in the Big Eye Boy table. This corresponds to the same arm shown in cell C1 of the Big Road table. Since cell C1 is the start of a new column, we check if the previous two columns have the same length. They are, so we color the Big Eye Boy red for cell A1.
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The next table, at the bottom left of the display, is “Small Road”. The Small Road works exactly like the Big Eye Boy, except that it skips the column to the left of the current column in the Big Road. To get enough information to continue, the Little Road must wait until after the first entry in the third column of the Big Road. Here is how the short road is recorded.
The small road in the sign in the photo was too big to fit in the grid, so the first four columns went down. It would have been BBRRBR.
The next table, in the lower right of the display, is “Cockroach Pig”. The cockroach works exactly like the minor road, except that it skips two columns to the left of the current column on the major road. To get enough information to continue, the cockroach has to wait until the entrance after the first entrance in the fourth column of the Big Road. Here’s how cockroaches are picked.
Finally, the image above shows the upper right part of the display. The left part shows the general shoe statistics of how many times each bet won. This is not a very realistic example, as I and the players and bankers win for example purposes only. The right section shows what happens to Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig depending on whether the next hand is won by the player or the banker.
Baccarat Scoreboards. Baccarat, Also Known As Punto Banco, Is…
Thanks to the friendly and helpful staff at the Venetian for answering my many questions on this topic and for letting me take pictures of their sign. If you’ve ever played baccarat, you may have noticed that the grid occupies most of the player’s interface. The grid is filled with various circles, dots and lines of different colors.
Yes, we know they look very confusing at first glance, but the truth is that there is a lot of information to be gleaned from these statistics!
On the one hand, you might say that baccarat is a game of chance and therefore each new hand will be completely unbiased from the other.
On the other side are those who like to predict and plan their next bet. This article is for such people.
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Passionate baccarat players aren’t content with just one type of street scene; They need different ways of looking at the game to see patterns and possibilities.
While the bead plate is the most commonly used, Big Road, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig all add their own twist to the game.
The bead plate is read from top to bottom, starting from the top left corner. This view can show letters (B, P, T) or numbers (0-9) on circles depending on your preference.
If we compare these stats to other table games, they are most similar to “standard” stats.
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In the photograph