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Crapsjourney wrote: ↑ Saturday, June 23, 2018 at 5:17 pm thnick wrote: ↑ Friday, June 22, 2018 at 5:19 pm About Crapsjourney’s baccarat method. First let me say that I love it, but I have questions because I’m tempted to try it. I used it on the Wizard of Odds simulator. For example, if you bet on the BANKER and lose two in a row, doesn’t that mean the PLAYER has won two in a row and a move can be made for a player’s third? To test it, even if it is for a short amount. of time, I can see that preventing one from getting caught up in a long one sided losing streak and watching a year video..you’ll be ahead right? thanks for the question It’s always tempting to switch sides isn’t it. Especially in the long run. I personally do not change. The odds put the game at close to 50/50. I’m not a good guesser. Whenever I switch, I switch sides. The math will turn it in your favor, but there are times when patience is tested. And in my opinion, this is the real winning ingredient. If you have a solid plan and are working on it with your built-in stoplosses, then you just have to be patient. I sat and struggled with shoes that were against me. And then on the way back the golf shoes that were with me. I think Seth Theobo and Lee Evans also have some math behind them (sticking to one side). But I can’t remember it. I’m not very happy either. So any kind of thinking that I can beat the cards is not going to work for me. Craps is a different story, but luckily. Aaron’s point…good answer. I completely agree.
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Stratocasterman wrote: ↑Fri Jun 22, 2018 10:55 pm wc…as always you bring up some excellent points to consider. You said “although the runs of 20 may show that this is less common than the more common shorter runs”. I looked briefly but could not find the baccarat event probability data. I’ve seen it before and I know the sequence is: Single Double Triple etc… At this rate, with Target Betting, we’re betting on at least the second most common event in Baccarat! I wanted to add some information I found regarding my answer to what the wild child ran away with in a shoe earlier about the frequency of events. Thanks for mentioning this w c as I think it is quite relevant information for Target Betting and Baccarat in general.
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This is information listed from my purchase of The NOR Approach To Baccarat, from beat the casino dot com, copyright 2011.
Thank you. Good information. I’ve been testing it for a few days. I agree that it is best to stay aside. However, if there are 4 losses in a row on one side, I will start a progression on the other side. So far this has been very successful in simulation using the Wizard of Odds simulator which uses what I believe is an 8 deck shoe. Has anyone tested this 4 lose progress bet?
I’m not a thnick… I, like Aaron, pick a side and stick with it, period. I won’t be caught spinning when I should have failed”! If the shoe doesn’t give me what I want to see…I’m out! As Heavy says…”Get in, stand up, get up out “. If I can’t get up, well, I go to something else!
Has anyone else tried jumping back and forth, especially when running? Maybe SteveO tried or tested it?
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Can you say how you would do with this shoe if you were just a punter? Of course, hindsight shows that Banker would crush him. But trying to beat the committee didn’t go too well that day.
Bones wrote: ↑ Sat Jun 30, 2018 3:26 pm Can you tell me how you would do with this shoe if you were just a punter. Bones… Honestly, to bet a player with all those Banker runs against me and all the individual player scores, I would switch to the fourth single player score or just walk away to another shoe! When things don’t go your way, LEAVE! There are too many other shoes that can easily be beaten.
I also say this with the premise that I am a one-way player. It doesn’t matter if you like Banker or Player. It’s common for me to pick a side and stick with it. I don’t like switching because you can rarely be on the right side of things.
In that case I’ll just switch to another boot and enter recovery mode. I have done this several times and have always prevailed to this day.
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Yes, I definitely had to go. I kind of sat there in disbelief thinking that this trend was bound to end and sure enough it did when the tombstone arrived hahahaha.
There are not many shoes to choose from. I only play at Harrahs because it’s the only $5 game in town and unlimited free hands.
Stratocasterman wrote: ↑ Tue Jun 26, 2018 1:58 am I’m not a thnick…I, like Aaron, pick a side and stick with it, period. I won’t be caught spinning when I should have failed”! If the shoe doesn’t give me what I want to see…I’m out! As Heavy says…”Get in, stand up, go”. If I can’t get up, well, I go to something else! Has anyone else tried jumping back and forth, especially when running? Maybe SteveO has tried or tested it? Now in my opinion and not much more to it, that it’s just an observation, not something I’ve programmed or run simulations on:
If you switch sides to jump on a run, don’t carry your LTD to that side. Instead, bet flat and use those winnings (if any) to pay off the “debt” on the upside.
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Now back to bet B with LTD of -4 instead of -6. Yes, you can recover the entire LTD on hand 5 with a second win in a row with a bet of 5, but in Baccarat streaks of 6 it doesn’t happen that often and I think it would be wiser to just the other side flat to bet.
Bones wrote: ↑ Sat Jun 30, 2018 3:26 pm Thanks Bones, your image is fantastic and represents the same machines I use in my casino.
It’s so good I’m going to do another podcast just for this image. I have the results from the excel spreadsheet and it’s not pretty.
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You know the winning formula! However, having limited tables is a pain. Make quick shoe changes and recovery difficult. Come to the Philippines…there are LOTS of baccarat tables for you, although they are mostly $20 tables, but I digress.
However, in smaller cities, PAGCOR casinos offer lower table minimums of $6 and $10 with approximately 3-10 tables available. Baccarat and slots are the ONLY main draws in these small towns…NO craps or anything else offered. For some reason, the few times I’ve played baccarat at these small town casinos in the past I’ve done really well, but I didn’t know about the Target Bet strategy. Their shoes looked very predictable and were generally even P/B shoes with nice runs of 3-5 both sides.
SteveO…that is a very interesting take on the shifting strategy. I’ll keep that in mind if I’m ever in that situation, though I’ll most likely just go to another table. Great contribution, thanks!
Since posting this shoe, I’ve started playing banker. There are a lot of brown pants moments, but so far so good. During a shoe I Recognized player sink again hsppy I was on Banker.
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Bones wrote: ↑ Wed Jul 04, 2018 7:39 pm Ever since I posted this shoe I’ve been biting and playing banker. There are a lot of brown pants moments, but so far so good. During a shoe I Recognized player sink again hsppy I was on Banker. The commission didn’t seem painful at all lol. Well ok then maybe now I have a player bet conversion LOL!
I’m with you on the commission rip off. You can consider an additional extra commission bet after accumulating winnings. I know that in one of Seth’s ‘Target Bets’ threads he decided to just post his normal test bets but added a 5% commission to each bet. If he loses, it carries over as a loss to the present anyway. At one point, Seth himself is persuaded to join the banker’s bet, but,