What Is Russian Roulette – Has Vladimir Putin amassed the most power in the world? For three years in a row (from 2013 to 2015), Forbes magazine chose him as the most influential person in the world. A 2018 CNN documentary portrayed him as such.
But the war in Ukraine, which went badly for Russia from the beginning, requires a review of Putin’s power. Tim
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Readers of the magazine did not include his name in the five most influential people of 2022. The first president of Ukraine was Volodymyr Zelensky.
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German sociologist Max Weber said in the 1920s that a strong man is able to “do his will despite resistance.” Keith Dowding, a British political philosopher, compares an influential person to a happy person. The latter gets what he wants “without effort” and without resistance.
Russian President Vladimir Putin with the Commissioner for Business Rights during a meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow, May 26, 2022. Photo: Mykhailo Metzel/Sputnik/Kremlin Pool
The difference between strength and luck can be easily seen in a card game. A player can win either because he has trump cards or by using a sophisticated strategy regardless of the cards. In the first case, the player was lucky. In the second case, it is powerful.
The expression of the card game is a symbol of Russian culture. Fyodor Dostoevsky dedicated the novel “The Gambler” to the psychology of the card player. Mikhail Bakhtin, the Russian philosopher and interpreter of Dostoevsky’s insight, explains that when the stakes are high in a card game, the player “feels on edge.” Luck makes everything possible for him. Misfortune forces him to lose everything.
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Some card games, roulette or in extreme cases, Russian roulette, are pure games of chance. A good memory and a well-thought-out strategy will help others to win.
Ukraine is Putin’s main game that will test his power. This explains his intention to win at all costs.
At the start of the war, Putin seemed to have all the cards in his hand. He had a military force at his disposal, which was considered the second strongest in the world. It inherited the status of a nuclear superpower from the Soviet Union and expanded its arsenal of nuclear weapons.
Russia’s possession of nuclear weapons gives it a decisive advantage. This basically negates the consequences of wrong moves. It is not surprising that Putin put the Russian nuclear forces on alert as soon as the war broke out in Ukraine.
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Putin also inherited vast natural resources that account for much of Russia’s influence. Europe has traditionally depended on energy supplies from Russia and its predecessor, the Soviet Union. Europe continued to import oil and gas from the Soviet Union, even though it officially condemned Russia’s invasion of Afghanistan four decades ago.
In 2019, Russia accounted for 41.3% of all European natural gas imports, 26.9% of all European crude oil imports, and 46.8% of all European coal imports.
Europe’s proposed ban on Russian oil imports is aimed at reducing this dependence. However, the ban on the purchase, import or export of crude oil and certain petroleum products from Russia has many exceptions that limit its effectiveness. Europe is also not ready to ban Russian gas.
But Russia’s early advantage had to be used wisely to win the war. A powerful army and abundant natural resources cannot defeat an enemy without a well-thought-out strategy and tactics. A careless player cannot take the hill even though he has a trump card.
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In Ukraine, the situation is in many ways the opposite. In 1994, Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons in exchange for “security guarantees”. But these guarantees were not binding. Russia, another signatory to the Budapest Memorandum – an agreement that supposedly secured Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity from Russia – has decided to violate it and use military force against Ukraine.
Ukraine had no choice but to rely on its impressive arsenal of conventional weapons, especially in the early stages of the offensive. In 2021, Ukraine’s military power was ranked 22nd in the world, significantly less than Russia. Until the defense talks between 40 countries supporting Ukraine were held in Germany at the end of April, the Ukrainians did not have access to heavy weapons from the West.
Ukraine has few natural resources. The total rent of natural resources in 2019 was only 1.8% of Russia’s GDP. Rents from natural resources (oil and gas being the most prominent example) account for 13.1% of Russia’s GDP.
Ukrainian protesters are demanding an embargo on Russian oil during demonstrations in front of the European Union institutions ahead of a meeting of European Union leaders to discuss Ukraine, energy and food security in Brussels. Photo: New Nation
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In assessing Ukraine’s chances of fending off a Russian attack, the US intelligence community has used a rational approach that Ukrainians believe has little hope of victory. The will to fight—a key component of power as opposed to luck—was lost.
The fact that Russia’s war turned out differently than Putin expected suggests that he made a series of strategic and tactical mistakes. Perhaps for the first time since he took over in 1999, he sometimes felt like a player ready to lose everything.
After all, he has more in common with Dostoyevsky’s player than with the calculating chess player in “The Defense of Luzhin”, a novel by another famous Russian writer, Vladimir Nabokov.
President Vladimir Putin speaks during an interview with “Russia-1” television channel in the resort of Sochi, Russia, on June 3, 2022. Photo: Mykhailo Klimentyev / Sputnik / Kremlin Pool
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To break Ukraine’s defenses, Putin needed to fill his fortune with force. Resource control is no longer enough. On closer inspection, Putin’s ability to get what he wants depends more on structural and discretionary factors than on his qualities as a strategist. Without strategy, real power is impossible.
Ukraine’s fierce resistance to Russia’s military and economic power, on the other hand, was a manifestation of its power. This has forced the U.S. intelligence community to conduct an internal review of how it assesses the combat power of foreign armed forces, taking into account war readiness in projections.
Russia’s war in Ukraine shows that Zelensky and the Ukrainian people may be stronger than Putin. Resistance is important. However, to finally assert their power, Ukrainians must go beyond resistance. They must win the war. In roulette, players bet on the same number, different groups of numbers, red or black, odd or even numbers, high numbers (19–36) or low numbers (1–18).
The dealer spins the wheel in one direction and the ball in the opposite direction. Players bet on where the ball will land
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Players can bet on single numbers, different groups of numbers, red or black colors, odd or even numbers, high (19-36) or low (1-18).
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