Wizard Baccarat Simulator – Last weekend I visited a casino with some friends. Of all the games, we enjoy North American style Baccarat the most. This type of Baccarat is often called Punto Banco. In short, Punto Banco is a card game where two hands compete:
“. During each hand (round of play), either 2 or 3 cards are dealt to both hands, depending on the complex drawing scheme, and all cards have a certain value. Simply put, the hand with the highest total card value, after which it starts, wins the flip new. Before each flip, gamblers can bet on which of the hands will win. No hand is in any way related to the actual house or player/bookie, so bets can be placed on one or the other. In general, there are three different bets that can be made in Punto Banco:
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If the player bets correctly on Punto or Banco, his bets are rewarded 100%. However, Banco winnings will often be subject to property tax. For example, Banco wins may only pay out 95%, or specific Banco wins (eg card total value 5) may pay less (eg 50%). Depending on the house rules, there will be a correct bet on equality (Egalité). pays either 800% or 900%. A wrong bet on Punto or Banco remains valid in case of Egalité treatment. In all other cases of incorrect bets, the money is taken by the house.
The House Always Wins: Simulating 5,000,000 Games Of Baccarat A.k.a. Punto Banco
My friends and I love Punto Banco because it’s completely random but feels “playable”. Punto Banco is played with six or eight cards, so there is no way to know which cards will come next. Also, the card drawing rules are pretty complicated, so you never really know what’s going to happen. Sometimes both Punto and Banco only get two cards, other times the hand you bet on will get a third card which can just change the situation. The gameplay of Punto Banco is perceived through our human errors to see patterns of randomness. Casinos often place a monitor with the last fifty results (see below) to entice players to (mistakenly) notice and place bets. Alternatively, you might think it’s smart to bet against the table (play Punto when everyone else goes Banco) or play whatever bet won on the last hand. Since the hands are dealt in fairly quick succession and the minimum bet is often 10+ euros/dollars, Punto Banco is a quick way to find out how lucky you are.
So back to last weekend’s trip to the casino. Unfortunately, my friends and I lost quite a bit of money at the Punto Banco table. We know the house has an edge (albeit less than in other games), but we’re usually pretty lucky. We often discuss what would be good strategies to reduce this house edge. Obviously, you want to play as few games as possible, but that’s as far as we’ve gotten in terms of strategy. Usually we just try our luck and randomly place bets on Punto or Banco and rarely on Egalité.
As a statistical programmer, I thought it might be interesting to simulate the game and its probabilities from the bottom up. On the one hand, I wanted to understand how favorable the prospects were for the house. On the other hand, I wonder to what extent the strategies can be more or less successful in keeping at least some of your hard earned money.
In my simulations, I follow the Holland Casino Punto Banco rules, which means a six deck shoe and a Banco win with 5 pays 50%. However, I have accepted the easiest payout of 9:1 Egalité. Several hours of programming and a few million simulated Baccarat hands later, here are the results:
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The figure below shows the results of five strategies that I tested using 50,000 simulations for 100 consecutive hands. Based on the results, I don’t want to develop and test other strategies, because the results look quite simple: play Banco. Also, Wikipedia cites Thorp (1984, original reference unknown) who stated that there are no strategies that really create a significant player advantage, except perhaps the endgame of the deck, which probably requires a lot of card counting. If you still want to check out other strategies, be my guest here are my five:
The figure above shows the expected value of each strategy over a series of consecutive hands. Clearly, the payoff is pretty linear, regardless of your strategy. The more hands you play, the more you lose. However, it is also clear that some strategies outperform others. After 100 hands of Baccarat playing only Banco, the total loss will be less than the amount of your bet. For example, if you bet €10 per hand, you will have an average loss of around €9 after 100 rounds. This corresponds to the ~1% house edge reported by Wizard of Odds. Likewise, betting only on Punto will result in a loss of approximately 130% of the bet amount, which also corresponds to the ~1.4% house edge reported by Betting Wizard of Odds. Betting on Punto or Banco based on who won last (LastHand_PB) results somewhere in between these two strategies, losing just over 100% of the bet amount in 100 hands. Your expected loss increases if you only bet on whichever outcome was last, including Egalité, resulting in ~-150% after 100 plays. This is mainly because betting on Egalité, which seems to be the worst strategy ever, will result in a significant 493.9% loss after 100 hands.
In addition to these average or expected values, I was also interested in the spread of results from our thousands of simulations. Especially since gamblers on a streak can win much more when betting on Egalité because the payout is higher (8-1 or 9-1). The figure below shows that any strategy, including Egalité, will actually produce a wider spread of results. Therefore, betting on Egalité can be a good strategy if you are miraculously lucky, if you have information about which cards will come next, or if you have
Disclaimer: this is a joke, please never bet on Egalité with the intention of winning money or trying to cheat the casino.
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If you want to know how I programmed these simulations, please visit the linked github repository or contact us. I plan to simulate rewards for various other casino games in the near future (first: BlackJack), so check out my website or twitter if you’re interested.
Read more AI algorithm application automation data data science dataviz deep learning design ggplot2 GIF hr javascript learning machine learning maps neural network programming python r research science statistics text mining tidyverse Tutorial video visualization youtube Enter the world of online baccarat and discover one of the biggest hits or Evolution Gaming game on real money baccarat.
Evolution Gaming Live Baccarat is a blend of tradition and innovation, rich in heritage and the future of traditional Baccarat.
Whether you’re perfecting your strategy or taking your first steps as a beginner, this game promises an exciting experience in the world of online baccarat.
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In this article, we will explain step by step what the game is about, all the features you can find and of course how to win big in Live Baccarat.
However, in the midst of this vast virtual landscape, the core of the game remains the same, its rules are consistent and it’s an exciting game.
Evolution Gaming’s Live Baccarat magic unfolds with six or eight decks of 52 cards each.
The game has a unique ritual that involves a cut card strategically placed before the seventh to last round. This cut card is the herald that signals the ultimate shoe deal.
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The dealer then reveals the burn card, and based on its value, an appropriate number of cards are discreetly removed, adding a layer of mystery and anticipation to the game.
Baccarat is based on a simple but profound goal: to bet on the hand closest to 9 points.
As a player, you are presented with three main betting options. Traditional Punto Banco – the most commonly accepted bets are Player (punto) or Banker (banco).
Each round of the game is a strategic battle in which players place bets on the expected winner – the Player’s hand or the Banker’s hand.
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Additionally, there is the option of betting on a tie between Player and Banker, which is a less common but potentially more profitable option. The banker option has 2,292,252,566,437,888 possible combinations, which is the option with the highest winning probability. Deciphering the Third Card Rules in Live Baccarat: Banker and Player
These rules, quietly complex, determine whether the banker or the player—or perhaps both—gets the third card (hit or stand). Let us reveal these guidelines more clearly:
The banker’s actions are bound by a precise set of rules that vary depending on the total of the first two cards:
Remember that all winning hands on the banker’s side are charged with a 5% commission, a small token of respect for the advantages of this position in the game.
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Enter the digital realm of Evolution Gaming Live Baccarat, where every element of the game interface
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