World Cup Wins – Top 10 final odds for 2022 FIFA World Cup winning teams.
Simulation models show that Brazil or Argentina are more likely to win the FIFA World Cup starting November 21 in Qatar.
World Cup Wins
University Professor Emeritus Steve Begg is Professor of Decision Making and Risk Analysis at the Australian School of Petroleum and Energy Resources.
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“Although Brazil and Argentina are the most likely winners of the World Cup, it is relatively unlikely that there will be a final between them (1.6%),” he says.
“The most likely final is Brazil vs. France (3.7%), followed by Belgium vs. Brazil (3.6%) and Argentina vs. France (3.4%). Players have a 16.9% chance to reach the round of 16, but they only have a small chance of success.
“Belgium, despite being the second best team in the world according to FIFA, has only a 9.5% chance of winning the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022. Australia have a 17% chance of making the last 16, but only a 0.14% chance. England have an 8.4% chance of winning.”
Decision-making under uncertainty, risk assessment and the psychological and judgmental factors that influence it are at the heart of Professor Emeritus Begg’s teaching and research.
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“For the FIFA World Cup, I developed a ‘Monte Carlo simulation’ of the competition, based on ranking teams based on other data, including recent form,” he says.
The Monte Carlo technique was developed in World War II by scientists working on the Manhattan Project, the development of the atomic bomb.
Caption Odds of winning the 2022 FIFA World Cup for each team (before the tournament kicks off).
“The basic idea is that instead of solving for all the possible outcomes of a complex system, enough possibilities are simulated to be able to estimate the probability of any particular outcome,” says Professor Begg.
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“The uncertainty of the World Cup model shows how the whole tournament can play out. What makes prediction difficult is not only the uncertainty of the team’s overall performance, but the random factors that can occur. each match and the complexity of the tournament rules.
“Humans have not developed the intuitive ability to accurately assess the probability of outcomes in complex and uncertain systems such as the World Cup. Many studies show that we are very bad at it. Complexity and uncertainty often lead to non-intuitive results, so we need models to help us.
“The odds offered by sports betting companies are not based on actual odds, but on the number of people betting on the outcome, which in turn is based on their intuitive judgments or desired outcomes, so it is not necessarily a good reflection of the true odds. »
“The uncertainty of the World Cup model shows how the whole tournament can play out. What makes prediction difficult is not only the uncertainty of the team’s overall performance, but the random factors that can occur. each match and the complexity of the rules of the tournament.” Emeritus University Professor Steve Begg, Professor of Decision Making and Risk Analysis, Australian School of Petroleum and Energy Resources.
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In the simulation, Professor Begg calculated 500,000 possible ways to play the entire tournament. While there are many possible options (about 110 billion unique ways to play in the group stage alone), this is “more than enough” to give a good estimate of each team’s odds of progressing.
Probability of position in each stage of the 2022 FIFA World Cup (before the start of the tournament).
In Professor Begg’s model, the two main uncertainties are a team’s “tournament form” (its overall level of performance during a tournament) and a team’s “game form” (how much better or worse a team is playing than its tournament form). in a specific game). The score of the match is based on the comparative performance of the two teams and the probability of possible points based on the last six World Cups.
The uncertainty of each team’s ‘tournament form’ is based on the FIFA rankings of the last four years, modified by Professor Begg’s knowledge of the game and the team’s recent performances. Poorer teams are relatively more likely to perform above their current level, while better teams are relatively more likely to underperform, so there is some “giant killing” potential.
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“Probability is subjective, it depends on what you know,” says Professor Begg. “You don’t need data about past outcomes of the exact same ‘event’, you use the information you do have to assign some belief that it might happen, and thus make decisions or, in this case, judgments about probabilities : What is important is that your information and reasoning are not biased.”
Professor Begg has calculated that the Australian Socceroos have a 17% chance of advancing to the group stage, a 4.2% chance of advancing to the quarter-finals, a 1.4% chance of making the semi-finals and a 0.45% chance of appearing. final and 0.14% chance. being crowned as the champion.
“In order to make good decisions, it’s very important to base beliefs on evidence and reason, not intuition or what you wish were true, like the Socceroos becoming World Cup champions,” he said.
The accuracy of the model was tested against typical numbers of wins, draws, goals per game and total goals in previous World Cup tournaments.
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But the real test is how it holds up to real results. “To assess the accuracy of probabilities, you cannot draw conclusions from a single result or observation. You have to pick a probability, say 70%, and look at how often events that have that probability happen,” says Professor Begg.
“If they happen about 70% of the time, the probability estimate is accurate. If they occur 90% of the time, the score is uncertain. If they happen 50% of the time, that’s overconfidence, which is typical when people . including experts, make such judgments intuitively.’
This process is repeated for probabilities from 0 to 100%. If the frequencies of the actual results are close to the probability, then the model is accurate or well calibrated.
Professor Begg carried out this process by comparing the results of the 2018 World Cup and Euro 2020 with the probabilities of his model.
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The results show that their simulations are very well calibrated compared to well-known media predictions such as “Paul the Octopus” and “Achilles the Cat” from previous tournaments.
Crispin Savage, Media and News Manager, University. Mobile phone: +61 (0)481 912 465, e-mail Email: crispin.savage@
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